Crop Progress, Condition & Cotton Yield

Cotton prices can be affected by the weather throughout the growing season.  One source of information concerning the weather’s impact is the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress and Condition Report.  The proportion of the crop rated poor or very poor is commonly cited as an indicator of yield in years of adverse weather conditions, just as the proportion of the crop rated good and excellent is commonly cited in years with favorable growing conditions.  The rate of crop progress is often discussed in the context of previous weather conditions (e.g., wet spring) as well as possible vulnerability to future weather events (e.g., a hurricane).  The purpose of this research is to expand on an exploratory approach that models yield as a function of condition and progress at different points in time throughout the growing season.  The central addition to previous efforts is an investigation of weather conditions on abandonment.  Specifically, this research examines the effects of drought and hurricanes on yield per planted acre.