Crop Condition, Progress, & Yield

Throughout the growing season, cotton prices are affected by weather information and how it might impact cotton production.  One key source of information concerning the weather’s impact is the USDA’s weekly Crop Progress and Condition report.  The proportion of the crop rated poor or very poor is commonly cited as an indicator of yield in years of adverse weather conditions, just as the proportion of the crop rated good and excellent is commonly cited in years with favorable growing conditions.  Likewise, it is not uncommon for analysts to cite difference in progress as a factor that can impact yield.  However, there is no known published analysis linking deviations in progress and condition ratings to eventual yield.  The goal of this research is to explore relationships between progress, condition ratings, and yield.  Results inform questions of when in the crop year correlations may develop between ratings and yield, what statistical forms are appropriate for the indices of crop condition, as well as how correlations and index specifications may vary across growing regions/states.