Cotton Crop Abandonment: The Roles of Prices, Weather, Irrigation and Insurance

This study analyzes county-level, time-series, cross-section data to estimate the relative importance of changes in cotton prices, crop insurance program participation, weather extremes and irrigation adoption on cotton crop abandonment.  A double hurdle model is estimated to first predict whether a county will have any abandoned acreage, then if so, how extensive abandonment is.  A number of early-season weather variables are significant predictors of abandonment rates.  This suggests there is potential to develop an "early warning system" for abandonment.