Drivers of Land Use Change in the Southern High Plains of Texas

The Southern High Plains of Texas is the most important cotton producing region in the US in terms of both acreage and total production.  Cotton acres planted under irrigation have exceeded one million acres each year for the last decade in the region. However, historic data indicates considerable fluctuation in irrigated cotton acreage ranging from 760,000 to 1,500,000 acres planted. Other irrigated crops in the region include grain sorghum, peanuts, and corn. However, they occupy a relatively small share of total acreage and show considerable year to year variation. This study investigated potential factors influencing changes in acres planted to cotton, grain sorghum, peanuts, and corn. Regression equations on the relative shares of these crops were developed by employing an aggregate land use model. The crop-share equations were simultaneously estimated using iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) to identify and quantify the significant factors influencing irrigated land use decisions in the region.