Simulating the Impacts of Future Climate Variability and Change on Cotton Production in the Texas Rolling Plains

The Texas Rolling Plains region in the north central Texas accounts for approximately 13% of the total cotton production in the state. Cotton production in this region in recent years has been experiencing challenges due to reduced rainfall amounts and frequent occurrence of severe droughts. Projected changes in climate are expected to further add to the uncertainty of cotton production in this region. The overall goal of this research is to study the effects of climate variability and change on cotton irrigation water use and yields using the CSM-CROPGRO-Cotton model within the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT), and suggest appropriate climate change adaptation strategies. The future climate data generated by three Regional Climate Models (RCMs), namely RCM3-GFDL, RCM3-CGCM3 and CRCM-CCSM, was obtained from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP), bias-corrected and used in this study. The CROPGRO-Cotton model, which was previously calibrated for Chillicothe in the Texas Rolling Plains, was used to study the impacts of projected climate change on cotton yield and irrigation water use over the period from 2041 to 2070. Preliminary results indicated a decrease in seed cotton yields under future climate scenarios within a range of 2% (RCM3-CGCM3) to 14.9% (RCM3-GFDL). The potential effects of climate change adaptation strategies such as early planting and no-tillage on cotton yields have been evaluated for the Texas Rolling Plains region.