The Impact of Climate Change on Cotton Production in Uzbekistan

Historically, Central Asia has been known for its abundance in water resources.  Soviet policy exploited the vast water reserves from the Amu Darya and Syr Darya Rivers to support extensive monoculture crop production causing the desiccation of the Aral Sea. This region currently faces droughts and decreasing water supplies, which is exacerbated by outdated technology and inefficient irrigation schemes.  Agricultural production in the Aral Sea Basin can only be sustainable if the region can learn to adapt to the effects of climate change and improve their institutional structure and crop production efficiencies.  This paper will estimate future fiber and food production using Uzbekistan as a case study.  A Monte Carlo simulation will be performed on downscaled climate projections from 2012-2100, which be used as an input into DSSAT, a crop growth model.  Production functions will be estimated using the yield results from DSSAT for cotton and wheat for the near-term (2012-2039), mid-term (2040-2069) and far-term (2070-2100).  The production functions will be used in an economic optimization model that will determine crop choice over time.  The results will show the optimal amount of water use, crop yields, and crop choice over time.