A Spatial Analysis of Technology Diffusion in Agriculture: Implications for Cotton Production

This paper examines the speed at which drip irrigation will spread through the Texas High Plains, and what pattern that diffusion will take across the region.  To do so, a spatial econometric model will be used that equates the level of use for the technology to a set of variables that are believed to be important to the technology diffusion process.  The analysis will be performed at the county level, and as a spatial model one of the variables used in the model will be the level of use in neighboring counties.  Of interest to the analysis will be how the chosen variables affect the spread of new technology and whether or not patterns of use in neighboring counties influence the decision to adopt technology; in other words, can counties learn from each other?

The estimated model can be used to estimate a technology diffusion curve that shows how use changes over time.  This curve will be estimated for both LEPA and drip irrigation.  The LEPA system is at the end of its diffusion cycle, so the estimated curve will show how well the model can predict the actual diffusion process.  Drip irrigation is at the beginning of its diffusion cycle, so the estimated curve will serve as a guide to how the use of drip systems will evolve in the future.  Comparisons between the two curves will provide insight into how the diffusion of drip will differ from that of LEPA systems, how changes in water use patterns will differ, and how patterns of crop choice will differ as well.