Estimating Yield Potential by Planting Date Utilizing Observed Data From the Arkansas Cotton Research Verification Program

The Cotton Research Verification Program (CRVP) was created in 1980 and represents a public demonstration of the implementation of research-based recommendations in actual field-scale farming environments. The goals of the CRVP are to: 1) educate producers on the benefits of utilizing University of Arkansas recommendations to improve yields and/or net returns, 2) to conduct on-farm field trials to verify research based recommendations, 3) to aid researchers in identifying areas of production that require further study, 4) to improve or refine existing recommendations which contribute to more profitable production, and 5) to incorporate data from CRVP into Extension educational programs at the county and state level. The CRVP has been conducted on 241 irrigated cotton fields in 33 cotton-producing counties in Arkansas.

Until recently, data from the CRVP have only been subjected to analyses based upon the current year results.  This study uses the entire dataset in a panel-context with cross-sectional and time-series attributes to evaluate long-term trends for use in a whole-farm decision making model. Observed data from 1980 to 2009 were analyzed to estimate the yield potential by planting date and to determine whether Arkansas farmers are planting earlier over time. The shape of the functional form was evaluated by goodness of fit metrics and estimation results reveal the expected yield potential based on planting dates measured as ‘weeks of year’.