Thursday, January 11, 2007 - 2:45 PM

Normal Backwardation and the U.S. Cotton Futures Market (1986-2006)

Marissa Joyce Chavez, John R. Robinson, and Victoria Salin. Texas A&M University, 2124 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-2124

The efficiency of commodity futures markets is a widely debated topic in academia. The cotton futures market is no exception. The existence of trends in the futures market is characterized as a price bias. This price bias would then be displayed as normal backwardation, which is a testable trait. Normal backwardation is often analyzed to better understand market behavior; and thus, implement more effective income enhancing strategies. Applying Kolb's methodology to a twenty year data set, we have tested the cotton futures market for the existence of normal backwardation. Preliminary test results yielded interesting information about the characteristics of the cotton futures market that will benefit cotton producers as well as cotton buyers, merchants, speculators, and other market players.

Recorded presentation