Boll weevil eradication programs are conducted within individual cotton production zones that share similar production schedules. Although these programs progress toward eradication within each zone, concerns remain about the possibility of weevil dispersal between eradication zones. In this study, an atmospheric dispersion model was used to simulate daily wind-aided dispersal of weevils from the Lower Rio Grande Valley (LRGV) of southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Simulated weevil dispersal was compared with weekly pheromone trap data collected in traps around the perimeter of cotton fields in the Winter Garden district and along highway traplines between the LRGV and the South Texas / Winter Garden zone of the Texas Boll Weevil Eradication Program. A logistic regression model was developed to estimate the probability of capturing at least one weevil in individual pheromone traps relative to specific values of estimated weevil dispersal. Model simulations provide a risk assessment of weevil re-infestation from dispersal by prevailing winds, information which program managers can use to appropriately schedule and target enhanced trapping, crop scouting, and insecticide applications.