National Cotton Council of America
Beltwide Cotton Conferences
January 8-11, 2008
Gaylord Opryland Resort and Convention Center
Nashville, Tennessee
The Cotton Foundation

Recorded Presentations

Thursday, January 10, 2008 - 2:45 PM

Accuracy of Cotton Price Reporting

Don E. Ethridge and Rene Aelvoet. Texas Tech University, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Box 42132, Lubbock, TX 79409

The Daily Price Estimation System, whose accuracy in measuring market prices and quality premiums and discounts in the Texas-Oklahoma markets is known and documented, was used as the benchmark against which to determine if USDA's cotton price reporting accuracy has increased over time.  The analysis found that during the study period (2000-2005) and the two market reporting regions studied, the Spot Quotations were accurate within an acceptable margin of error for 7 of the 28 cases analyzed (14 quality attributes in each of the two regions), not accurate but improving for 7 cases, inaccurate and deteriorating for 13 cases, and indeterminate for one case.  Spot Quotations were "good or getting better" 52% of the time and "inadequate or deteriorating" 48% of the time.